From December 1 through 11, 1997, more than 160 nations met in Kyoto, Japan, to negotiate binding limitations on greenhouse gases for the developed nations, pursuant to the objectives of the Framework Convention on Climate Change of 1992. The outcome of the meeting was the Kyoto Protocol, in which the developed nations agreed to limit their greenhouse gas emissions, relative to the levels emitted in 1990. The United States agreed to reduce emissions from 1990 levels by 7 percent during the period 2008 to 2012.

The analysis in this report was undertaken at the request of the Committee on Science of the U.S. House of Representatives. In its request, the Committee asked the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to analyze the Kyoto Protocol, “focusing on U.S. energy use and prices and the economy in the 2008-2012 time frame,” as noted in the first letter in Appendix D. The Committee specified that EIA consider several cases for energy-related carbon reductions in its analysis, with sensitivities evaluating some key uncertainties: U.S. economic growth, the cost and performance of energy-using technologies, and the possible construction of new nuclear power plants.

DOE - KYOTO PROTOCOL PREFACE -

The energy projections and analysis in this report were conducted using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), an energy-economy model of U.S. energy markets designed, developed, and maintained by EIA. NEMS is used each year to provide the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). In its second letter, in Appendix D, the Committee requested that the analysis use the same general methodologies and assumptions underlying the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), published in December 1997; however, some minor modifications were made to allow greater flexibility in NEMS in response to higher energy prices and to incorporate some methodologies that were formerly represented offline. These differences are outlined in Appendix A. The macroeconomic analysis used the Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy, which is also used for the economic analysis in the AEO.

DOE - KYOTO PROTOCOL PREFACE -

The Kyoto Protocol was fatally flawed in fundamental ways. But the process used to bring nations together to discuss our joint response to climate change is an important one. That is why I am today committing the United States of America to work within the United Nations framework and elsewhere to develop with our friends and allies and nations throughout the world an effective and science-based response to the issue of global warming.

WHITEHOUSE .GOV - PRESIDENT BUSH DISCUSSES GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

NRDC - NATURAL RESOURCE DEFENCE COUNCIL -

(CONFLICT WITH ALL SPECIFIED AREAS - The United States has dropped from 7,122 MMTCO2 in 2004 to 5877 million metric tons of CO2 in 2006, which is a 1.1% drop from 2005 and a 1.2% drop since 2004. This is 20% of world's emissions. China has continually increased their emissions since 1990.

The Kyoto Protocol was negotiated and signed in accordance with the principles of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the 1992 treaty signed by George W. Bush's father and ratified by the Senate. The climate convention requires all countries, including developing countries, to establish programs to address greenhouse gas emissions and to report on progress. The 1992 treaty also requires developed countries such as the United States to take the lead in limiting greenhouse gas emissions. In particular, the 1992 treaty commits the United States and other developed countries to establish programs designed to return greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels. Current U.S. emissions are about 15 percent greater than they were in 1990.

Developed countries such as the United States, with only 25 percent of the world's population, are responsible for more than 75 percent of the accumulated greenhouse gas pollution in the atmosphere to date. Nonetheless, many developing countries - including China, India, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina - have made progress in reducing the greenhouse gas emission rates from their economies through improved transport, forestry and other policies.While U.S. carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise, emissions in China have dropped more than 17 percent since 1997.

China had been forecast to surpass the USA. in 2010, but its sizzling economic growth has pushed the date forward, IEA chief economist Fatih Birol was quoted as saying in an interview in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal newspaper.

Increasingly, new designs for American high-rise buildings include high-tech details such as energy-efficient windows and long-lasting fluorescent bulbs that are meant to reduce their energy needs.

But no matter how "green" high-rise buildings are, they are still made with steel — hundreds of tons of it. And factories that produce steel emit a tremendous amount of carbon dioxide.

China, in particular, exports a lot of steel and can make it more cheaply than the United States can. But China makes it less efficiently: Producing a ton of Chinese steel causes a lot more carbon-dioxide pollution than a ton of American steel.

NPR.org - Cutting Greenhouse Emissions May Rest with China

Increasingly, new designs for American high-rise buildings include high-tech details such as energy-efficient windows and long-lasting fluorescent bulbs that are meant to reduce their energy needs.

But no matter how "green" high-rise buildings are, they are still made with steel — hundreds of tons of it. And factories that produce steel emit a tremendous amount of carbon dioxide.

China, in particular, exports a lot of steel and can make it more cheaply than the United States can. But China makes it less efficiently: Producing a ton of Chinese steel causes a lot more carbon-dioxide pollution than a ton of American steel.

First, we know the surface temperature of the earth is warming. It has risen by .6 degrees Celsius over the past 100 years. There was a warming trend from the 1890s to the 1940s. Cooling from the 1940s to the 1970s. And then sharply rising temperatures from the 1970s to today.

There is a natural greenhouse effect that contributes to warming. Greenhouse gases trap heat, and thus warm the earth because they prevent a significant proportion of infrared radiation from escaping into space. Concentration of greenhouse gases, especially CO2, have increased substantially since the beginning of the industrial revolution. And the National Academy of Sciences indicate that the increase is due in large part to human activity.

Yet, the Academy's report tells us that we do not know how much effect natural fluctuations in climate may have had on warming. We do not know how much our climate could, or will change in the future. We do not know how fast change will occur, or even how some of our actions could impact it.

For example, our useful efforts to reduce sulfur emissions may have actually increased warming, because sulfate particles reflect sunlight, bouncing it back into space. And, finally, no one can say with any certainty what constitutes a dangerous level of warming, and therefore what level must be avoided.

WHITEHOUSE .GOV - PRESIDENT BUSH DISCUSSES GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

This is a challenge that requires a 100 percent effort; ours, and the rest of the world's. The world's second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases is China. Yet, China was entirely exempted from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol.

India and Germany are among the top emitters. Yet, India was also exempt from Kyoto. These and other developing countries that are experiencing rapid growth face challenges in reducing their emissions without harming their economies. We want to work cooperatively with these countries in their efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions and maintain economic growth.

Kyoto also failed to address two major pollutants that have an impact on warming: black soot and tropospheric ozone. Both are proven health hazards. Reducing both would not only address climate change, but also dramatically improve people's health.

Kyoto is, in many ways, unrealistic. Many countries cannot meet their Kyoto targets. The targets themselves were arbitrary and not based upon science. For America, complying with those mandates would have a negative economic impact, with layoffs of workers and price increases for consumers. And when you evaluate all these flaws, most reasonable people will understand that it's not sound public policy.

WHITEHOUSE .GOV - Problems with the Kyoto Treaty.

WHITEHOUSE .GOV - Problems with the Kyoto Treaty.

Even with the best science, even with the best technology, we all know the United States cannot solve this global problem alone. We're building partnerships within the Western Hemisphere and with other like-minded countries. Last week, Secretary Powell signed a new CONCAUSA Declaration with the countries of Central America, calling for cooperative efforts on science research, monitoring and measuring of emissions, technology development, and investment in forest conservation.

We will work with the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and other institutions to better understand regional impacts of climate change. We will establish a partnership to monitor and mitigate emissions. And at home, I call on Congress to work with my administration on the initiatives to enhance conservation and energy efficiency outlined in my energy plan, to implement the increased use of renewables, natural gas and hydropower that are outlined in the plan, and to increase the generation of safe and clean nuclear power.

By increasing conservation and energy efficiency and aggressively using these clean energy technologies, we can reduce our greenhouse gas emissions by significant amounts in the coming years. We can make great progress in reducing emissions, and we will. Yet, even that isn't enough.

WHITEHOUSE .GOV - Problems with the Kyoto Treaty.

UNITED STATES POLICY ON THE KYOTO TREATY -

(FACT - POLICY OF BUSH ADMIN.)

Following the work of this Cabinet-level group, the President announced in February of 2002 the Clear Skies and Global Climate Change Initiatives. These initiatives collectively accomplish the following for global climate change:
• By 2018, cuts emissions of the three worst air pollutants by seventy percent.
• In the next ten years, commits America to cutting greenhouse gas intensity by eighteen percent.
• Achieves goals comparable to the Kyoto Protocol using market-based

Both the above Initiatives and the future of environmental policy center on the following key recommendations of the working group: (CLICK LINK IN COLUMN)

UNITED STATES POLICY ON THE KYOTO TREATY -

(FACT - POLICY OF BUSH ADMIN.)