Carbon Blueprints - Effect on Animals

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GLOBAL WARMING - EFFECT ON ANIMALS
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DISCLAIMER: As you know, Carbon Blueprints is dedicated to accuracy and truth. This site is allowing this discussion, of which each "fact" must be backed up by research and accurate data, in order make sure we know what is true, what is myth, and what is a lie.

WHAT ARE THE EFFECTS ON THE ANIMAL KINGDOM?:
A change in climate is a change for the world and effects more than just the human race. When the environment in any location is changed the residents that live there have to aclimate to the change. What if they can't change fast enough. Then they start to suffer. Is that what is happening to the animals around the world today? Are they being effected fast enough that they can't aclimate to that change. Let's take a look. Remember, there are many other animals being effected, but polar bears are a great indicator since they were just added to the endangered species list in the United States.

Right now there are conflicting reports on most animals that should be effected by Global Warming. Take for example the Polar Bears, some reports say that the Polar Bears are decreasing and need to be protected. The organization of Polar Bear International report that numbers that have been tracked, (remember that it is almost impossible to take a cencus on animals like the polar bear) and modeled that the number of polar bears alive today in Hudson Bay, Southern Beaufort, Baffin Bay, and other areas have been declining by around 22% since the early 1980's.

Though in a report put out by the Canadian Government the number of Polar Bears has jumped to 2,100 from 800 in the 1980's. This report was done in Northern Quebec and Southern Baffin Island, these are a small amount of Canadian territories. The World Wildlife Federation has even reported that the Polar Bears are to healthy numbers at this time and that 60% of all Polar Bears live in Canada. In another report by the WWF, polar bears are being effected by Global Warming.

So reports are scattered but reliable sources claim that only those places where environmental groups are counting their numbers are places were they have decreased and in all other areas they have flourished. The other problem found with some organizations that claim numbers are down is that they get their numbers from computer models and not actual exploration. Even the World Wildlife Federation said it would almost be impossible to do a census on the polar bear population. Those who have show an increase in the number of Polar Bears throughout the world.

"THEORY" = Prediction for the Future
"MUST CONFIRM WITH DATA" = Data is not in and has not been provided as of yet.

"FACT" = data is in and there is no question.
"CONFLICT" is when both sides have accurate" data but they conflict.

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POLAR BEARS INTERNATIONAL - The population of the Polar Bears in some studied area are declining.

(CONFIRMED WITH DATA - These three area studied have had declines in polar bears but others have increased and others have stayed stable according to arctile by WWF, see article two rows below and to the right.)

In areas where long-term studies are available, populations are showing signs of stress due to shrinking sea ice. Canada's Western Hudson Bay population has dropped 22% since the early 1980s. The declines have been directly linked to an earlier ice break-up on Hudson Bay. A long-term study of the Southern Beaufort Sea population, which spans the northern coast of Alaska and western Canada, has revealed a decline in cub survival rates and in the weight and skull size of adult males. Such declines were observed in Western Hudson Bay bears prior to the population drop there. Another population listed as declining is Baffin Bay. According to the most recent report from the Polar Bear Specialist Group, the harvest levels from Nunavut when combined with those from Greenland (which were thought to be much lower than they actually are) has resulted in this shared population being in a non-sustainable harvest situation, meaning the population is at great risk of a serious decline. The harvest is thought to be several times above what is sustainable.

The latest government survey of polar bears roaming the vast Arctic expanses of northern Quebec, Labrador and southern Baffin Island show the population of polar bears has jumped to 2,100 animals from around 800 in the mid-1980s.

As recently as three years ago, a less official count placed the number at 1,400.

The Inuit have always insisted the bears' demise was greatly exaggerated by scientists doing projections based on fly-over counts, but their input was usually dismissed as the ramblings of self-interested hunters.

As Nunavut government biologist Mitch Taylor observed in a front-page story in the Nunatsiaq News last month, "the Inuit were right. There aren't just a few more bears. There are a hell of a lot more bears."

NATIONAL POST - Polar bear numbers up, but rescue continues

(CONFIRMED WITH DATA - WWF reports that the population of polar bears is stable)

UCS - USA - UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS - Climate Change and its effect on animals and plants.

The geographic ranges of most plant and animal species are limited by climatic factors, including temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, humidity, and wind. Any shift in the magnitude or variability of these factors in a given location will impact the organisms living there. Species sensitive to temperature may respond to a warmer climate by moving to cooler locations at higher latitudes or elevations. Although the response to warming is generally understood, it is difficult to predict how concurrent changes in other climatic factors also affect species distributions. Despite the uncertainties, ecological models predict that the distribution of world biomes will shift as a result of the climate changes associated with increased greenhouse gases (IPCC, 1998). The distribution and size of the populations of plants and animals within those biomes will also change, with potential consequences for the functioning of ecosystems and for humans who are dependent on many ecosystem goods and services.

Calls to list polar bears as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act are based on forecasts of substantial long-term declines in their population. Nine government reports were prepared to support the listing decision. We assessed these reports in light of evidence-based (scientific) forecasting principles. None referred to works on scientific forecasting methodology. Of the nine, Amstrup, Marcot and Douglas (2007) and Hunter et al. (2007) were the most relevant to the listing decision. Their forecasts were products of complex sets of assumptions. The first in both cases was the erroneous assumption that General Circulation Models provide valid forecasts of summer sea ice in the regions inhabited by polar bears. We nevertheless audited their conditional forecasts of what would happen to the polar bear population assuming, as the authors did, that the extent of summer sea ice would decrease substantially over the coming decades. We found that Amstrup et al. properly applied only 15% of relevant forecasting principles and Hunter et al. only 10%. We believe that their forecasts are unscientific and should therefore be of no consequence to decision makers. We recommend that all relevant principles be properly applied when important public policy decisions depend on accurate forecasts.

WESTERN INSTITUTE FOR STUDY OF THE ENVIRONMENT - Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit Working Paper - The forecasts in the past have been flawed.

(CONFIRMED WITH DATA)

UCS - USA - UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS - Climate Change and its effect on animals and plants.

Factors other than climate may limit the extent to which organisms can shift their ranges. Physical barriers such as mountain ranges or extensive human settlement may prevent some species from shifting to more suitable habitat. In the case of isolated mountain top species, there may be no new habitat at higher elevation to colonize. Even in cases where no barriers are present, other limiting factors such as nutrient or food availability, soil type, and the presence of adequate breeding sites may prevent a range shift. Although tree line will probably increase in elevation as climate warms, for example, soils at higher elevations are often thin and of poor quality and could be inadequate to sustain species from lower elevation sites. In coastal areas, the loss of wetlands and beaches due to sea level rise could destroy sites used by turtles, birds, and marine mammals for breeding and raising young. It should be noted that given all these potential difficulties, it is encouraging that a few species have apparently been able to shift their ranges in response to climate, as described in the studies listed above. However, the long-term impacts of these shifts on the populations and species as a whole, and the extent to which other species can adapt to changing climate, are difficult to assess at this time.

Polar bears are among the few large carnivores that are still found in roughly their original habitat and range, and in some places in roughly their natural numbers. Now most populations have returned to healthy numbers, though there are large uncertainties regarding some that are still harvested quite heavily and others for which information is lacking. There are believed to be at least 22,000 polar bears worldwide, and about 60% of these are in Canada. They are found in 20 more or less distinct populations.

The general status of polar bears is currently stable, though there are differences between the populations. Some are stable, some seem to be increasing, and some are decreasing due to various pressures. The status of several populations is not well documented.

WWF - WORLD WILDLIFE FEDERATION -Polar Bear - Population & Distribution - Status of Polar Bears is currently stable.

(CONFIRMED WITH DATA)

WWF - WORLD WILDLIFE FEDERATION - Effect on Animals by Global Warming

(MUST CONFIRM WITH DATA)

Around the world, climate change is threatening not only individual species such as polar bears, tigers, salmon, penguins and corals, but it is also posing potentially catastrophic and long-term changes to the environment and people's lives around the world.

In addition to rising temperatures, climate change is resulting in sea level rise, increased hurricane intensity, glacier decline, increased drought, spread of disease, shifts in the timing of seasons, increased flooding, changes in freshwater supply, and an increase in extreme weather events.

LIVE SCIENCE - Effect on Animals by Global Warming

(MUST CONFIRM WITH DATA)

The planet is warming, humans are mostly to blame and plants and animals are going to dramatic lengths to cope. That's the consensus of a number of recent studies that used wildlife to gauge the extent of global warming and its effects.

While the topic of climate change is contentious -- including whether the planet is actually heating up -- a growing number of documented shifts in traits and behaviors in the wild kingdom is leading many scientists to conclude the world is changing in unnatural ways.

Among the changes [see full list]: