Carbon Blueprints - Food and Water Shortage

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GLOBAL WARMING - FOOD AND WATER SHORTAGE
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DISCLAIMER: As you know, Carbon Blueprints is dedicated to accuracy and truth. This site is allowing this discussion, of which each "fact" must be backed up by research and accurate data, in order make sure we know what is true, what is myth, and what is a lie.

IS THERE A SHORTAGE OF FOOD AND WATER? Is Global Warming creating a shortage of food and water. There are two ways to answer this. One talking about the natural effects that effect our food and water and the other talks about the problems caused by human's trying to fight Global Warming.

When the earth heats up, the crops and water supply suffers. The crops need more water and if not given it die from the heat. The crops feed the people on earth and so a natural decrease of crops adversally effects our environment and our people. More water is being drunk by humans, animals, and plants at a higher rate when the earth heats up. This creates a higher demand for clean water and yet there is only enough to go around, until it runs out.

The shortage that comes from the human race trying to stop Global Warming actually can create a larger problem if mishandled. For example, Ethanol is one fix we as humans were using to stop Global Warming and yet we mismanaged the production. For one, we chose the wrong plant to make ethanol out of since it takes one gallon of fossil fuels to produce one gallon of ethanol, which is accounted for through fertilizers, prows/machinery to plant and harvest, transportation before it becomes ethanol fuel, and many other sources. The second problem is the mismanaging that we have experienced. Too many crops were converted to corn and prices for all other crops have skyrocketed. This has caused higher prices and starvation around the world. These are not exactly adding to the problem of Global Warming but to the human race who are the reason we are trying to fix the problem of Global Warming. It is not worth it if the human race suffers and in exchange the earth suffers as well. This is only one example of solutions we thought we had that would help solve Global Warming, instead have created a shortages, as well as other problems with food and water. Stated again this is another problem created by Global Warming and amplified by humans directly.

"THEORY" = Prediction for the Future
"MUST CONFIRM WITH DATA" = Data is not in and has not been provided as of yet.

"FACT" = data is in and there is no question.
"CONFLICT" is when both sides have accurate" data but they conflict.

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EPA - SHORTAGE OF FOOD AND WATER - Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variables.

(MUST CONFIRM WITH DATA)

Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes, such as droughts, floods and severe storms. The forces that shape our climate are also critical to farm productivity. Human activity has already changed atmospheric characteristics such as temperature, rainfall, levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and ground level ozone. The scientific community expects such trends to continue. While food production may benefit from a warmer climate, the increased potential for droughts, floods and heat waves will pose challenges for farmers. Additionally, the enduring changes in climate, water supply and soil moisture could make it less feasible to continue crop production in certain regions.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) concluded:

Recent studies indicate that increased frequency of heat stress, droughts and floods negatively affect crop yields and livestock beyond the impacts of mean climate change, creating the possibility for surprises, with impacts that are larger, and occurring earlier, than predicted using changes in mean variables alone. This is especially the case for subsistence sectors at low latitudes. Climate variability and change also modify the risks of fires, pest and pathogen outbreak, negatively affecting food, fiber and forestry.

Ethanol is a renewable, homegrown fuel that can help lower U.S. dependence on foreign oil. But as more and more ethanol is made from corn, less and less corn is available for food production, and that´s causing some unforeseen problems.

Corn is a mainstay of American agriculture- it´s an important ingredient in cereals and baked goods, and corn syrup is used to make processed foods like candy, chips and soft drinks. But most importantly, corn is the major source of food for cattle, pigs, turkeys and chickens that are headed for the dinner table.

A recent study conducted by the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development at Iowa State University reported that U.S. ethanol production could consume more than half of U.S. corn, wheat and coarse grains by 2012, driving up food prices and causing shortages. The study estimates that booming ethanol production has already raised U.S. food prices by $47 per person annually. In Mexico, protests have already erupted over the high price of corn tortillas, a staple food in the local diet.

POPULAR SCIENCE - Corn is destroying American agriculture.

(CONFIRMED WITH DATA FROM IOWA STATE UNIV.)

EPA - CLIMATE FACTORS ON FOOD/WATER SHORTAGE -

(MUST CONFIRM WITH DATA)

Several factors directly connect climate change and agricultural productivity:

Average temperature increase
Change in rainfall amount and patterns
Rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2
Pollution levels such as tropospheric ozone
Change in climatic variability and extreme events

Most agricultural impact studies have considered the effects of one or two aspects of climate change on a particular farming activity. Few, however, have considered the full set of anticipated shifts and their impact on agricultural production across the country.

Average temperature increase: An increase in average temperature can 1) lengthen the growing season in regions with a relatively cool spring and fall; 2) adversely affect crops in regions where summer heat already limits production; 3) increase soil evaporation rates, and 4) increase the chances of severe droughts.

Change in rainfall amount and patterns: Changes in rainfall can affect soil erosion rates and soil moisture, both of which are important for crop yields. The IPCC predicts that precipitation will increase in high latitudes, and decrease in most subtropical land regions—some by as much as about 20 percent. While regional precipitation will vary the number of extreme precipitation events is predicted to increase (IPCC, 2007).

Food Shortage Rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2: Increasing atmospheric CO2 levels, driven by emissions from human activities, can act as a fertilizer and enhance the growth of some crops such as wheat, rice and soybeans. CO2 can be one of a number of limiting factors that, when increased, can enhance crop growth. Other limiting factors include water and nutrient availability. While it is expected that CO2 fertilization will have a positive impact on some crops, other aspects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation changes) may temper any beneficial CO2 fertilization effect (IPCC, 2007).

Pollution levels such as tropospheric ozone: Higher levels of ground level ozone limit the growth of crops. Since ozone levels in the lower atmosphere are shaped by both emissions and temperature, climate change will most likely increase ozone concentrations. Such changes may offset any beneficial yield effects that result from elevated CO2 levels.

Change in climatic variability and extreme events: Changes in the frequency and severity of heat waves, drought, floods and hurricanes, remain a key uncertainty in future climate change. Such changes are anticipated by global climate models, but regional changes and the potential affects on agriculture are more difficult to forecast.

American farmers are expected to plant 90 million acres of corn this year. That's 15 percent more than last year because they're trying to meet the demand for ethanol.

That biofuel is being touted as one weapon in our fight against our oil addiction, but some Minnesota researchers say using all that corn for fuel may cause starvation.

"Ethanol is a hot commodity right now," said David Morris, an energy policy expert and renewable energy advocate. "Ethanol production has doubled in the last three years and we will see ethanol double again probably in the next three years."

The price of corn has surged with the demand. That has some researchers worrying that ethanol could cause a food shortage.

One Minnesota study says 1.2 billion people in the world could be chronically hungry by 2025. That's 600 million more than predicted due in part to the loss of crops and increased prices created by biofuels.

CBS BROADCASTING THROUGH WCCO.COM - Ethanol Production may be starving countries around the world.

(CONFIRMED WITH DATA)

Hydrologic conditions above Lake Powell have dried out somewhat during March. Precipitation in the Upper Colorado River Basin was 65% of average in March 2008 and is now 112% of average for the water year as of April 7, 2008. As of April 7, 2008 the snowpack conditions above Lake Powell are 116% of average. The climate outlook for the Upper Colorado River Basin indicates that the next 3 months will likely have below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures.

Inflow to Lake Powell is currently 14,500 cfs ( April 6, 2008). Total unregulated inflow to Lake Powell so far in water year 2008 (October through March) is 86% of average with March measured at 88 % of average.

Forecasted April through July unregulated inflow to Lake Powell in 2008 is 9.7 million acre-feet, 122 % of average (April final forecast). Typically by April 1 st, the snow accumulation season is nearly complete in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Snowpack levels, on average, peak by about April 10 th.

The current elevation of Lake Powell ( March 2, 2008) is 3,590.5 feet, 109.5 feet from full pool elevation of 3,700 feet. Reservoir storage is currently 10.86 million acre-feet, or 44 percent of capacity. The water surface elevation of Lake Powell is now near its seasonal low. In April, anticipated snowmelt runoff will cause the water surface elevation to begin to increase. Under the current inflow forecast, Lake Powell would reach a peak elevation of about 3639 feet in July 2008. The peak elevation for Lake Powell in 2007 was 3,611.7 feet.

USPS - UNITED STATES POWER SQUADRON - Snow pack is 116% above average and Lake Powell should raise between 28 - 50 feet.

(PARTIALLY CONFIRMED WITH DATA)

EPA - IMPLICATIONS FOR NORTH AMERICA

(MUST CONFIRM WITH DATA)

The IPCC concluded that, for North America as a whole (IPCC, 2007):

Moderate climate change will likely increase yields of North American rain fed agriculture, but with smaller increases and more spatial variability than in earlier estimates. Most studies project likely climate-related yield increases of 5-20 percent over the first decades of the century, with the overall positive effects of climate persisting through much or all of the 21st century.

Food production is projected to benefit from a warmer climate, but there probably will be strong regional effects, with some areas in North America suffering significant loss of comparative advantage to other regions.
The U.S. Great Plains/Canadian Prairies are expected to be particularly vulnerable.
Crops that are currently near climate thresholds (e.g., wine grapes in California) are likely to suffer decreases in yields, quality, or both.
Climate change is expected to improve growing conditions for some crops that are limited by length of growing season and temperature. (e.g. fruit production in the Great Lakes region and eastern Canada).

Agriculture in the U.S. and other industrialized countries is expected to be less vulnerable to climate change than agriculture in developing nations, especially in the tropics, where farmers may have a limited ability to adapt. In addition, the effects of climate change on U.S. and world agriculture will depend not only on changing climate conditions, but will also depend on the agricultural sector’s ability to adapt through future changes in technology, changes in demand for food, and environmental conditions, such as water availability and soil quality. Management practices, the opportunity to switch management and crop selection from season to season, and technology can help the agricultural sector cope with and adapt to climatic variability and change.

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) has commissioned a federal study on the potential effects of climate change on agriculture. The CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3 will address the following questions:

What factors influencing agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity in the United States are sensitive to climate and climate change?
How could changes in climate exacerbate or ameliorate stresses on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity?
What are the indicators of these stresses?
What current and potential observation systems could be used to monitor these indicators?
Can observation systems detect changes in agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity that are caused by climate change, as opposed to being driven by other causal activities?

The National Weather Service is projecting this year's spring runoff into Lake Powell will be 122 percent of average. That will raise Lake Powell, currently at elevation 3591 feet above mean sea level, approximately 50 feet by mid-July, to its highest elevation in six years. Powell is currently projected to end the calendar year almost 40 feet higher than it is today.

For the past seven years, the annual release from Lake Powell to Lake Mead has been 8.23 million acre-feet. Based on the April 1 inflow forecast, Reclamation projected that, by the end of September, Lake Powell would rise above 3636 feet above mean sea level (msl) and Lake Mead would be below 1105 feet msl. In accordance with the interim guidelines, an additional amount of water will therefore be released from Lake Powell to Lake Mead for water year 2008 (Oct. 1, 2007 - September 30, 2008).

US DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOD - BUREAU OF RECLAMATION - High Snowpack Triggers Additional Releases from Lake Powell to Lake Mead in Accordance with New Guidelines

(CONFIRMED WITH DATA)