NASA - Global temperatures have increased at an average of 1.08 to 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit.

(CONFIRMED WITH DATA)

Far from being some future fear, global warming is happening now, and scientists have evidence that humans are to blame. For decades, cars and factories have spewed billions of tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and these gases caused temperatures to rise between 0.6°C and 0.9°C (1.08°F to 1.62°F) over the past century. The rate of warming in the last 50 years was double the rate observed over the last 100 years. Temperatures are certain to go up further.

STANFORD

(THEORY)

“Warmer ocean water may result in more intense and frequent tropical storms and hurricanes. Sea levels are also expected to increase by 0.09 - 0.88 m. in the next century, mainly from melting glaciers and expanding seawater.”

STANFORD

(Theory)

Solar variability certainly plays a minor role, but it looks like only a quarter of the recent variations can be attributed to the Sun. At most. During the initial discovery period of global warming, the magnitude of the influence of increased activity on the Sun was not well determined.

STANFORD

(FACT-PROCESS)

“These greenhouse gases reabsorb heat reflected from the Earth's surface, thus trapping the heat in our atmosphere. This natural process is essential for life on Earth because it plays an important role in regulating the Earth's temperature.

NASA - What is Global Warming?

(CONFIRMED WITH DATA)

Global warmth begins with sunlight. When light from the Sun reaches the Earth, roughly 30 percent of it is reflected back into space by clouds, atmospheric particles, reflective ground surfaces, and even ocean surf. The remaining 70 percent of the light is absorbed by the land, air, and oceans, heating our planet’s surface and atmosphere and making life on Earth possible. Solar energy does not stay bound up in Earth’s environment forever. Instead, as the rocks, the air, and the sea warm, they emit thermal radiation, or infrared heat. Much of this thermal radiation travels directly out to space, allowing Earth to cool.

EPA - STATE OF KNOWLEDGE- Items that the EPA are fairly certain, uncertain, and not very sure of about Global Warming.

(MUST CONFIRM WITH DATA)

As with any field of scientific study, there are uncertainties associated with the science of climate change. This does not imply that scientists do not have confidence in many aspects of climate science. Some aspects of the science are known with virtual certainty, because they are based on well-known physical laws and documented trends. Current understanding of many other aspects of climate change ranges from “very likely” to “uncertain.”

Some scientists believe with virtual certainty that:

• Human activities are changing the composition of Earth's atmosphere. Increasing levels of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times are well-documented and understood.
• The atmospheric buildup of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is largely the result of human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels.
• An “unequivocal” warming trend of about 1.0 to 1.7°F occurred from 1906-2005. Warming occurred in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and over the oceans (IPCC, 2007).
• The major greenhouse gases emitted by human activities remain in the atmosphere for periods ranging from decades to centuries. It is therefore virtually certain that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will continue to rise over the next few decades.
• Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations tend to warm the planet.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations" (IPCC, 2007). In short, a growing number of scientific analyses indicate, but cannot prove, that rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are contributing to climate change (as theory predicts). In the coming decades, scientists anticipate that as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to rise, average global temperatures and sea levels will continue to rise as a result and precipitation patterns will change.

What's Not Certain?

Important scientific questions remain about how much warming will occur, how fast it will occur, and how the warming will affect the rest of the climate system including precipitation patterns and storms. Answering these questions will require advances in scientific knowledge in a number of areas:

• Improving understanding of natural climatic variations, changes in the sun's energy, land-use changes, the warming or cooling effects of pollutant aerosols, and the impacts of changing humidity and cloud cover.
• Determining the relative contribution to climate change of human activities and natural causes.
• Projecting future greenhouse emissions and how the climate system will respond within a narrow range.
• Improving understanding of the potential for rapid or abrupt climate change.

Addressing these and other areas of scientific uncertainty is a major priority of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). The CCSP is developing twenty-one Synthesis and Assessment products to advance scientific understanding of these uncertainty areas by the end of 2008.

EPA - ADAPTION

(MUST CONFIRM WITH DATA)

Some degree of future climate change will occur regardless of future greenhouse gas emissions. Adapting to or coping with climate change will therefore become necessary in certain regions and for certain socioeconomic and environmental systems. The need for adaptation may be increased by growing populations in areas vulnerable to extreme events.  However, according to the IPCC, “adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change, and especially not over the long term as most impacts increase in magnitude.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines adaptation as the “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC, 2007).

The extent of climate change impacts upon different ecosystems, regions and sectors of the economy will depend not only on the sensitivity of those systems to climate change, but also on the systems' ability to adapt to climate change.

An example of an adaptation strategy to prevent damage from climate change is shore protection (e.g., dikes, bulkheads, beach nourishment), which can prevent sea level rise from inundating low-lying coastal property, eroding beaches, or worsen flooding. If the costs or environmental impacts of shore protection are high compared with the property being protected, an alternative adaptation strategy would be a planned retreat, in which structures are relocated inland as shores retreat.

Adaptation to environmental change is not a new concept. Human societies have shown throughout history a strong capacity for adapting to different climates and environmental changes. For example, farmers, foresters, civil engineers, and their supporting institutions have been forced to adapt to numerous challenges to overcome adversity or to remove important impediments to sustained productivity.

Examples of adaptation and coping strategies with current climate fluctuations include farmers planting different crops for different seasons, and wildlife migrating to more suitable habitats as the seasons change.

Nevertheless, human society and the natural environment are not entirely protected against, nor perfectly adapted to, current climate variability and extreme weather events. Current economic losses from climate variations and extremes can be substantial. These losses indicate that society is vulnerable and that adaptation has not been sufficient to offset damages associated with current variations in climatic conditions (IPCC, 2007).

Human-induced climate change represents a new challenge, and may require adaptation approaches to changes that are potentially larger and faster than past experiences with recorded natural climatic variability. Furthermore, the IPCC concluded that “adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions.” (IPCC, 2007)

All climate-sensitive systems of society and the natural environment, including agriculture, forestry, water resources, human health, coastal settlements, and natural ecosystems, will need to adapt to a changing climate or possibly face diminished productivity, functioning and health.

In unmanaged natural systems, adaptation is not planned but occurs when forced to do so. For example, as the climate warms, tree and animal species may migrate northward to remain in suitable climatic conditions and habitat (to the extent that human barriers, such as roads and cities, allow such migration).

In human society, much of adaptation may be planned and undertaken by private decision makers and by public agencies or governments. For humans, adaptation is a risk-management strategy that has costs and is not foolproof. The effectiveness of any specific adaptation requires consideration of the expected value of the avoided damages against the costs of implementing the adaptation strategy (IPCC, 2007; Easterling et al., 2004).

According to one recent assessment (Easterling et al., 2004):

...the literature indicates that U.S. society can on the whole adapt with either net gains or some costs if warming occurs at the lower end of the projected range of magnitude, assuming no change in climate variability and generally making optimistic assumptions about adaptation. However, with a much larger magnitude of warming, even making relatively optimistic assumptions about adaptation, many sectors would experience net losses and higher costs. The thresholds in terms of magnitudes or rates of change (including possible non-linear responses) in climate that will pose difficulty for adaptation are uncertain. In addition, it is uncertain how much of an increase in frequency, intensity, or persistence of extreme weather events the United States can tolerate.

There are substantial limits and barriers to adaptation, including environmental, economic, informational, social, attitudinal and behavioral barriers that are not fully understood.   In addition, there are significant knowledge gaps for adaptation as well as impediments to flows of knowledge and information relevant to adaptation decisions.

Furthermore, adaptive capacity is uneven across and within societies.  There are individuals and groups within all societies that have insufficient capacity to adapt to climate change, and high adaptive capacity does not necessarily translate into actions that reduce vulnerability.  For example, despite a high capacity to adapt to heat stress through relatively inexpensive adaptations, residents in urban areas in some parts of the world continue to experience high levels of mortality.

Regarding ecosystems, and on species diversity in particular, effects are expected to be negative at all but perhaps the lowest magnitudes of climate change because of the limited ability of natural systems to adapt. Although biological systems have an inherent capacity to adapt to changes in environmental conditions, given the rapid rate of projected climate change, adaptive capacity is likely to be exceeded for many species.

Furthermore, the ability of ecosystems to adapt to climate change is severely limited by the effects of urbanization, barriers to migration paths, and fragmentation of ecosystems, all of which have already critically stressed ecosystems independent of climate change itself.

Illustrative examples of potential adaptation measures in different sectors include the following:

Human Health

• Many diseases and health problems that may be exacerbated by climate change can be effectively prevented with adequate financial and human public health resources, including training, surveillance and emergency response, and prevention and control programs.
• Urban tree planting to moderate temperature increases
• Weather advisories to alert the public about dangerous heat conditions
• Grain storage, emergency feeding stations
• Adjusting clothing and activity levels, increasing fluid intake

Coastal Areas and Sea Level Rise

• Developing county-scale maps depicting which areas will require shore protection (e.g. dikes, bulkheads, beach nourishment) and which areas will be allowed to adapt naturally
• Analyzing the environmental consequences of shore protection
• Promoting shore protection techniques that do not destroy all habitat
• Identifying land use measures to ensure that wetlands migrate as sea level rises in some areas
• Engaging state and local governments in defining responses to sea level rise
• Improving early warning systems and flood hazard mapping for storms
• Protecting water supplies from contamination by saltwater

Agriculture and Forestry

• Altering the timing of planting dates to adapt to changing growing conditions
• Altering cropping mix and forest species that are better suited to the changing climatic conditions
• Breeding new plant species and crops that are more tolerant to changed climate condition
• Promoting fire suppression practices in the event of increased fire risk due to temperature increases
• Controlling insect outbreaks

Ecosystems and Wildlife

• Protecting and enhancing migration corridors to allow species to migrate as the climate changes
• Identifying management practices that will ensure the successful attainment of conservation and management goals
• Promoting management practices that confer resilience to the ecosystem

Water Resources

• Altering infrastructure or institutional arrangements
• Changing demand or reducing risk
• Improving water use efficiency, planning for alternative water sources (such as treated wastewater or desalinated seawater), and making changes to water allocation
• Conserving soil moisture through mulching and other means
• Protecting coastal freshwater resources from saltwater intrusion

Energy

• Increasing energy efficiency to offset increases in energy consumption due to warming
• Protecting facilities against extreme weather events
• Diversifying power supply in the event of power plant failures due to excess demand created by extreme heat, or by extreme weather events