STANFORD - Warm ocean water, melting ice

(THEORY)

“Warmer ocean water may result in more intense and frequent tropical storms and hurricanes. Sea levels are also expected to increase by 0.09 - 0.88 m. in the next century, mainly from melting glaciers and expanding seawater.”

NOAA - Ice borehole temperature, snow cover, and glacier recession data

(CONFIRMED WITH DATA)

The current elevation of Lake Powell ( March 2, 2008) is 3,588.8 feet, 111.2 feet from full pool elevation of 3,700 feet. Reservoir storage is currently 10.71 million acre-feet, or 45 percent of capacity. The water surface elevation of Lake Powell is now near its seasonal low. In April, anticipated snowmelt runoff will cause the water surface elevation to begin to increase. Under the current inflow forecast, Lake Powell could reach a peak elevation of about 3640 feet in July 2008 which is about 50 feet higher than the current elevation. The peak elevation for Lake Powell in 2007 was 3,611.7 feet.

Bureau of Reclamation - Snowpack will increase Lake Powells water level by 50 ft.

(CONFIRMED WITH DATA)

NOAA - Sea-Ice Measuring Temperatures

(CONFIRMED WITH DATA)

A previously unknown underwater volcano has been discovered off the coast of Antarctica, the National Science Foundation said Thursday.
The foundation said the research vessel Lawrence M. Gould passed the volcano as it was returning from a study of the Larsen B Ice Shelf, which attracted world-wide attention when it collapsed in 2002. (Related story: Ice shelf breakup challenges researchers)
Highly sensitive temperature probes moving continuously across the bottom of the volcano showed signs of geothermal heating of seawater, according to the agency.
Domack said the volcano stands 2,300 feet above the seafloor and extends to within roughly 900 feet of the ocean surface.

National Science Foundation - through USAtoday.com - Volcano found under Arctic Coast

(CONFIRMED WITH DATA)

NATIONAL SNOW AND ICE DATA CENTER (NSIDC) - Wilkens Ice Shelf degrading and falls into the earth.

(MUST CONFIRM WITH DATA - There may be volcanic activity under this life shelf, can not be confirmed like Larsen B Ice Shelf's volcanic activity until ice is cleared out.)

Satellite imagery reveals that a 13,680 square kilometer (5,282 square mile) ice shelf has begun to collapse because of rapid climate change in a fast-warming region of Antarctica.

The Wilkins Ice Shelf is a broad plate of permanent floating ice on the southwest Antarctic Peninsula, about 1,000 miles south of South America. In the past 50 years, the western Antarctic Peninsula has experienced the biggest temperature increase on Earth, rising by 0.5 degree Celsius (0.9 degree Fahrenheit) per decade. NSIDC Lead Scientist Ted Scambos, who first spotted the disintegration in March, said, "We believe the Wilkins has been in place for at least a few hundred years. But warm air and exposure to ocean waves are causing a break-up."

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION - (NSF) - Larsen B ice shelf may have fallen because of underwater volcanic activity in the Antarctic Sound. The heat from this active volcano could also cause this ice shelf and others to degrade and fall.

(FACT - Natural Landscape)

NASA - GISS - GODDARD INSTITUTE OF SPACE STUDIES - Sea Levels are rising by 1.7 -1.8 mm/yr.

(MUST CONFIRM WITH DATA)

Twentieth century sea level trends, however, are substantially higher that those of the last few thousand years. The current phase of accelerated sea level rise appears to have begun in the mid/late 19th century to early 20th century, based on coastal sediments from a number of localities. Twentieth century global sea level, as determined from tide gauges in coastal harbors, has been increasing by 1.7-1.8 mm/yr, apparently related to the recent climatic warming trend. Most of this rise comes from warming of the world's oceans and melting of mountain glaciers, which have receded dramatically in many places especially during the last few decades. Since 1993, an even higher sea level trend of about 2.8 mm/yr has been measured from the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter. Analysis of longer tide-gauge records (1870-2004) also suggests a possible late 20th century acceleration in global sea level.

NASA - Antarctica temperatures have slightly decreased in south pole and increased around antarctic's pennisula where volcanic activity have been found.

(CONFIRMED WITH NASA DATA)

United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) - Himalayan Glaciers and other Glaciers around the world are shrinking.

(CONFLICT)

Researchers from Newcastle University, UK, who publish their findings in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, looked at temperature trends in the Upper Indus Basin over the last century.

They found a recent increase in winter temperatures and a cooling of summer temperatures. These trends, combined with an increase in snow and rainfall - a finding from earlier in their research - could be causing glaciers to grow, at least in the higher mountain regions.

Newcastle University & American Meterological Society's Journal of Climate - Himalayan Glaciers are growing, cooling temperatures in winter and summer.

(CONFIRMED WITH DATA)

NASA & American Geophysical Union - Glaciers around the world are melting.

(CONFLICT)

(FACT - THERE ARE GLACIERS THAT ARE RECEDING AND HAVE BEEN FOR OVER 100 YEARS)

At the Spring Meeting of the American Geophysical Union in Boston, May 29 to June 2, Wessels and co-author Jeff Kargel, a USGS geologist, will present the first round of results from this project in a talk titled "GLIMS: Documenting the Demise of the Earth's Glaciers using ASTER." Wessels will present evidence that thousands of glaciers are melting, corroborating similar arguments made by many other researchers over the last few years. Like shrinking ice cubes in an increasingly steamy atmospheric brew, glaciers around the world appear to be getting thinner or even disappearing entirely, says Wessels. The flooding caused by runoff from these melting glaciers could have disastrous consequences for people living nearby.

USGS - Hubbard Glacier, and other glaciers around the world are growing at a great rate.

(CONFLICT)

(FACT - HUBBARD GLACIERS HAS BEEN GROWING FOR OVER 100 YEARS)

Icelandic Geodetic Survey and European Space Agency - Volcano under Europe's largest glacier.

(FACT - Natural Landscaping)

NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC - Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says

(CONFIRMED WITH DATA)

Polar regions include the Arctic in the Northern Hemisphere and Antarctica in the Southern Hemisphere. The Arctic encompasses a large, mostly frozen ocean surrounded by land, is home to almost four million people (ACIA, 2004), and includes some or all of the territories of eight nations, including the United States. By contrast, Antarctica is an ice-covered continent surrounded by ocean and is generally uninhabited.

The Arctic is expected to experience the greatest rates of warming compared with other world regions (IPCC, 2007a). In part, this is because ice has greater reflectivity (also known as albedo) than the ocean or land. Melting of highly reflective snow and ice reveals darker land and ocean surfaces, increasing absorption of the sun's heat and further warming the planet, especially in those regions. There is evidence that climate change is already having observable impacts in the Arctic and in Antarctica. Many of these observed changes are consistent with the expected effects of climate change under a range of climate scenarios.

Figure 1: Observed sea ice changes. This animation shows sea ice coverage shrinking from 1979 to 2005, by roughly half. Source: NASA

In 2004, the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)was released. This report was produced by an international team of scientists at the request of the Arctic Council, an 8-nation intergovernmental forum including the United States. The ACIA concluded the following:

Effects on the Climate System

• Average temperatures in the Arctic have risen at almost twice the rate as temperatures in the rest of the world over the past few decades.
• Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming (see Figure 1).
• The above trends are expected to continue during this century, resulting from ongoing increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (though greenhouse gases do not primarily originate from the Arctic).
• Melting of Arctic glaciers is a contributing factor to sea-level rise around the world.
• Warming is very likely to alter the release and uptake of greenhouse gases from soils, vegetation, and coastal oceans.
• Reduction in sea ice is very likely to have devastating consequences for polar bears, ice-dependent seals, and local people for whom these animals are a primary food source.

Effects on Biological and Human Systems

• Arctic impacts will have implications for biodiversity around the world because migratory species depend on breeding and feeding grounds in the Arctic.
• Reduced sea ice is likely to increase marine access to the region’s resources, expanding opportunities for shipping and possibly for offshore oil extraction (although operations could be hampered initially by increasing movement of sea ice in some areas).
• As frozen ground thaws, many existing buildings, roads, pipelines, airports, and industrial facilities are likely to be destabilized.
• Increased areas of tree growth in the Arctic could serve to take up carbon dioxide (CO2, the principal greenhouse gas emitted by human activities) and supply more wood products and related employment, providing local and global benefits. However, tree growth would mean absorption of additional sunlight (as the land surface would become darker and less reflective) and add to regional warming.
• Climate change is taking place within the context of many other ongoing changes in the Arctic, including observed increases in chemical contaminants entering the Arctic from other regions, overfishing, land use changes that result in habitat destruction and fragmentation, rapid growth in the human population, and cultural, governance and economic changes.

The conclusions of the ACIA report are further supported by evidence from remote sensing technologies. Satellites and U.S. and British Navy submarines have provided data on retreating Arctic sea ice and decreasing Arctic ice thickness. Satellite data show that the extent of Arctic sea ice has decreased by about three percent per decade. Figure 2 below shows trends in Arctic sea ice extent since the 1860s.

Upward-looking sonar data from U.S. Navy submarines between 1987 and 1997 show it is very likely that average ice thickness in the Arctic has decreased by up to 1 meter (IPCC, 2007a).

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007a and 2007b) supports and extends the ACIA’s conclusions with additional evidence. The IPCC notes that “the resilience shown historically by Arctic Indigenous Peoples is now being severely tested,” with impacts on food availability and personal safety that are changing hunting and traveling practices. Community infrastructures will be harmed by the warming and thawing of permafrost. A less severe climate may bring benefits as well, such as reduced heating costs, new agricultural and forestry opportunities, and more navigable northern sea routes, but such benefits will depend on local conditions.

Like the Arctic in the Northern Hemisphere, Antarctica in the Southern Hemisphere has been experiencing effects attributable to changes in regional climate. Future changes resulting from global climate change are also expected to be significant in this region of the world.

Over the past half-century, there has been a marked warming trend in the Antarctic Peninsula. Much of the rest of Antarctica has cooled during the last 30 years, due to ozone depletion and other factors, but this trend is likely to reverse. Surface waters of the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica have warmed and become less saline, and precipitation in this region has increased (IPCC, 2007a).

Antarctica has experienced significant retreat and collapse of ice shelves, the result of regional warming. The loss of these ice shelves has few direct impacts on sea level and global climate. Because the ice shelves were floating, their melting does not directly add to sea level rise. They usually are replaced by sea-ice cover, so overall albedo (reflectivity) changes very little (IPCC, 2007a).

Satellite observations show no significant change in Antarctic sea-ice extent over the 1973-2005 period. Analysis of whaling records and modeling studies provide some evidence for longer-term declines in sea ice extent in some regions, but there are not enough data to provide firm conclusions (IPCC, 2007a).

As climate change continues, most of the land-based Antarctic ice sheet is actually likely to thicken if projected warming increases snowfall. There is a small risk, however, that the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in coming centuries. This is because the West Antarctic ice sheet is moored in an oceanic basin, where slippery mud covers the basin floor. This unique setting makes the ice sheet potentially unstable (IPCC, 2007a).