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GLOBAL WARMING - NATURAL DISASTERS INCREASE
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 WE ARE CARETAKERS OF THIS EARTH
DISCLAIMER: As you know, Carbon Blueprints is dedicated to accuracy and truth. This site is allowing this discussion, of which each "fact" must be backed up by research and accurate data, in order make sure we know what is true, what is myth, and what is a lie.
DOES GLOBAL WARMING INCREASE NATURAL DISASTERS?:
It is said that Global Warming (GW) is creating more natural disasters such as Hurricane and other natural storms, El Ninos, Floods, etc. As shown below, since GW became public, the number of Hurricanes have decreased. This may be because of facts that were taught in the past. It use to be common knowledge that hurricanes had a cycle and every few years they would increase and every few years afterwards they would decrease. El Ninos are proven not to be part of GW. Floods are not increasing or decreasing but are just as detremental as they were before. Natural disasters are not reported to be increasing due to GW.
Carbon Cycle


Some federal scientists who have been studying and been advocates for GW have now changed their tone when it comes to the link between GW and Hurricanes, now they are saying that there is no link. Though Hurricanes may be taken from the list of natural disasters, the others have still not be unlinked as effects of GW. For this reason we are still on the hunt to stop GW.

There may be hope ahead as well, if GW has caused or increased natural disasters, another study has shown that we are on the decline in temperature change and the earth may take a natural break from GW for the next 10 years. This then is a time to prepare for what might come.

"THEORY" = Prediction for the Future
"MUST CONFIRM WITH DATA" = Data is not in and has not been provided as of yet.

"FACT" = data is in and there is no question.
"CONFLICT" is when both sides have accurate" data but they conflict.
SOURCE:
FOR
AGAINST
SOURCE:

NOAA - El Niños are not caused by global warming.

(DISPROVEN - DUE TO A SLOWING OF HURRICANE AND OTHER STORM ACTIVITY, THIS MAY SHOW THAT HURRICANES COME IN A NATURAL CYCLE - (THEORY))

Many individual studies of various regions show that extra-tropical cyclone activity seems to have generally increased over the last half of the 20th century in the northern hemisphere, but decreased in the southern hemisphere. Furthermore, hurricane activity in the Atlantic has shown an increase in number since 1970 with a peak in 2005. It is not clear whether these trends are multi-decadal fluctuations or part of a longer-term trend.

NOAA Storm Events in 2007

Hurricane Dean, Hurricane Felix, Hurricane Flossie, Hurricane Henriette,Hurricane Humberto, Hurricane Ivo, Hurricane Noel, Subtropical Depression Ten, Subtropical Storm Andrea, Subtropical Storm Olga, Tropical Cyclone Gonu, Tropical Depression 03E, Tropical Depression 04, Tropical Depression 04E, Tropical Depression 10E, Tropical Depression Alvin, Tropical Depression Barbara, Tropical Depression Dean, Tropical Depression Eight, Tropical Depression Erin, Tropical Depression Felix, Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, Tropical Depression Five, Tropical Depression Gabrielle, Tropical Depression Humberto, Tropical Depression Nine, Tropical Depression Thirteen, Tropical Storm Alvin, Tropical Storm Chantal, Tropical Storm Cosme, Tropical Storm Dalila, Tropical Storm Dean, Tropical Storm Erick, Tropical Storm Erin, Tropical Storm Flossie, Tropical Storm Gil, Tropical Storm Henriette, Tropical Storm Humberto, Tropical Storm Ingrid, Tropical Storm Ivo, Tropical Storm Jerry, Tropical Storm Julliet, Tropical Storm Karen, Tropical Storm Kiko, Tropical Storm Lorenzo, Tropical Storm Melissa, Tropical Storm Noel, Tropical Storm Olga

Natural Disasters have decreased since 2005, Global Warming Models, and "Inconvenient Truth"

NOAA - 2007 Storm Events - 7 Hurricanes, 3 Subtropical Depressions, 37 Tropical Depressions (Storms)

2006 Storm Events - 11 Hurricanes, 19 Tropical Cyclones, 28 Tropical Depressions, 35 Tropical Storms, 8 Typhoons

2005 Storm Events - 18 Hurricanes, 1 Super Typhoon, 26 Tropical Cyclones, 27 Tropical Depressions, 46, Tropical Storms, 12 Typhoons

(CONFIRMED WITH DATA)

    El Niños are not caused by global warming. Clear evidence exists from a variety of sources (including archaeological studies) that El Niños have been present for thousands, and some indicators suggest maybe millions, of years. However, it has been hypothesized that warmer global sea surface temperatures can enhance the El Niño phenomenon, and it is also true that El Niños have been more frequent and intense in recent decades. Whether El Niño occurrence changes with climate change is a major research question.

NOAA - El Niños are not caused by global warming.

(FACT-Natural Occurance - Not connected to Global Warming)

    "There has been cooling, if you take 1998 as your point of reference. If you take 2002 as your point of reference, then temperatures have plateaued. This is certainly not what you'd expect if carbon dioxide is driving temperature because carbon dioxide levels have been increasing but temperatures have actually been coming down over the last 10 years."

THE AUSTRALIAN - CATASTROPHIC predictions of global warming usually conjure with the notion of a tipping point, a point of no return.

(MUST CONFIRM WITH DATA)

Not only that, warmer temperatures will actually reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic and those making landfall, research meteorologist Tom Knutson reported in a study released Sunday.

In the past, Knutson has raised concerns about the effects of climate change on storms. His new paper has the potential to heat up a simmering debate among meteorologists about current and future effects of global warming in the Atlantic.

Ever since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, hurricanes have often been seen as a symbol of global warming's wrath. Many climate change experts have tied the rise of hurricanes in recent years to global warming and hotter waters that fuel them.

FOXNEWS - Study Refutes Link Between Global Warming and Hurricanes

(MUST CONFIRM WITH DATA)

EPA - EXTREME EVENTS - Most information is based off the IPCC report. Extreme events in nature.

(MUST CONFIRM WITH DATA)

Climate is defined not simply as average temperature and precipitation but also by the type, frequency and intensity of weather events. Human-induced climate change has the potential to alter the prevalence and severity of extremes such as heat waves, cold waves, storms, floods and droughts. Though predicting changes in these types of events under a changing climate is difficult, understanding vulnerabilities to such changes is a critical part of estimating vulnerabilities and future climate change impacts on human health, society and the environment.

Our current level of understanding, as summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007), is as follows:

Since 1950, the number of heat waves has increased and widespread increases have occurred in the numbers of warm nights. The extent of regions affected by droughts has also increased as precipitation over land has marginally decreased while evaporation has increased due to warmer conditions. Generally, numbers of heavy daily precipitation events that lead to flooding have increased, but not everywhere. Tropical storm and hurricane frequencies vary considerably from year to year, but evidence suggests substantial increases in intensity and duration since the 1970s.In the extratropics, variations in tracks and intensity of storms reflect variations in major features of the atmospheric circulation, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation.

The IPCC projects the following likely, very likely, or virtually certain changes in extreme events and associated effects between now and 2100 (IPCC, 2007):

EPA - EXTREME EVENTS - Chart of different natural disasters that may follow Global Warming.

(PARTIAL CONFLICT - 2008 Record)

Projected Change Projected Impacts by Sector
Agriculture, forestry Water resources Human health/ mortality Industry/ settlement/ society

Warmer/fewer cold days/nights; warmer/more hot days/nights over most land areas.

(CONFLICTING TO 2008 RECORDS)

Increased yields in colder environments; decreased yields in warmer environments; Effects on water resources relying on snow melt Reduced human mortality from decreased cold exposure Reduced energy demand for heating; increased demand for cooling; declining air quality in cities; reduced effects of snow, ice etc.
Warm spells/heat waves: frequency increases over most land areas Reduced yields in warmer regions due to heat stress at key devel. stages; fire danger increase Increased water demand; water quality problems, e.g., algal blooms Increased risk of heat-related mortality Reduction in quality of life for people in warm areas without air conditioning; impacts on elderly and very young; reduced thermoelectric power production efficiency
Heavy precipitation events: frequency increases over most areas Damage to crops; soil erosion, inability to cultivate land, water logging of soils Adverse effects on quality of surface and groundwater; contamination of water supply Deaths, injuries, infectious diseases, allergies and dermatitis from floods and landslides Disruption of settlements, commerce, transport and societies due to flooding; pressures on urban and rural infrastructures

Area affected by drought: increases

(CONFLICTING TO 2008 RECORDS)

Land degradation, lower yields/crop damage and failure; livestock deaths; land degradation More widespread water stress Increased risk of food and water shortage and wild fires; increased risk of water- and food-borne diseases Water shortages for settlements, industry and societies; reduced hydropower generation potentials; potentials for population migration

Number of intense tropical cyclones: increases

(CONFLICTING TO 2008 RECORDS)

Damage to crops; windthrow of trees Power outages cause disruption of public water supply Increased risk of deaths, injuries, water- and food-borne diseases Disruption by flood and high winds; withdrawal of risk coverage in vulnerable areas by private insurers
Incidence of extreme high sea level: increases Salinization of irrigation and well water Decreased freshwater availability due to saltwater intrusion Increase in deaths by drowning in floods; increase in stress-related disease Costs of coastal protection versus costs of land-use relocation; also see tropical cyclones above

EPA - EXTREME EVENTS - This will not effect one severe storm but normal storm levels.

(PARTIAL CONFLICT - 2008 Record)

It is important to understand that directly linking any one specific extreme event (e.g., a severe hurricane) to human-caused climate change is not possible. However, climate change may increase the probability of some ordinary weather events reaching extreme levels or of some extreme events becoming more extreme. For example, according to NOAA, it is probable that heat waves will become more likely and progressively more intense over the course of decades under current climate change scenarios. Changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and other extreme events across North America will be comprehensively assessed in the forthcoming Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3: Climate Extremes.

EPA - ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE - This is not to be confused with Climate Change but these abrupt events occur due to nature.

(PARTIAL CONFLICT - 2008 Record)

Abrupt Climate Change

Abrupt climate change has a specific definition and should not be confused with climate changes that occur slowly or individual extreme events that affect relatively small areas. Abrupt climate change refers to sudden (on the order of decades), large changes in some major component of the climate system, with rapid, widespread effects. The potential for abrupt climate changes cannot be predicted with confidence; however, abrupt climate changes are an important consideration because, if triggered, they could occur so quickly and unexpectedly that human or natural systems would have difficulty adapting to them (NRC, 2002).

Abrupt climate changes occur when a threshold in the climate system is crossed – a trigger that causes the climate to rapidly shift from one state to a new, different one. Crossing thresholds in the climate system may lead to large and widespread consequences (Schneider et al., 2007).

These triggers can be forces that are “external” or “internal” to the climate system. Examples of these triggers include:

  • changes in the Earth’s orbit
  • a brightening or dimming of the sun
  • melting or surging ice sheets
  • strengthening or weakening of ocean currents
  • emissions of climate-altering gases and particles into the atmosphere

More than one of these triggers can operate simultaneously, since all components of the climate system are linked.

Scientific data show that abrupt changes in the climate at the regional scale have occurred throughout history and are characteristic of the Earth’s climate system (NRC, 2002). During the last glacial period, abrupt regional warmings (likely up to 16°C within decades over Greenland) and coolings occurred repeatedly over the North Atlantic region (Jansen et al., 2007). These warmings likely had some large-scale effects such as major shifts in tropical rainfall patterns and redistribution of heat within the climate system but it is unlikely that they were associated with large changes in global mean surface temperature.

Our state of knowledge is not yet sufficient to predict the timing of the future abrupt climate changes or pinpoint their effects. However, the National Academies of Sciences did conclude that anthropogenic forcing could increase the risk of abrupt climate change:

…greenhouse warming and other human alterations of the Earth system may increase the possibility of large, abrupt, and unwelcome regional or global climatic events. The abrupt changes of the past are not fully explained yet, and climate models typically underestimate the size, speed, and extent of those changes. Hence, future abrupt changes cannot be predicted with confidence, and climate surprises are to be expected.

- National Research Council, 2002

Changes in weather patterns can result from abrupt changes that might occur spontaneously due to interactions in the atmosphere-ice-ocean system, or from the crossing of a threshold from slow external forcing (as described above) (Meehl et al., 2007). In a warming climate, changes in the frequency and amplitudes of these patterns might not only evolve rapidly, but also trigger other processes that lead to abrupt climate change (NRC, 2002). Examples of these patterns include the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/OA).

Scientists have investigated the possibility of an abrupt slowdown or shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) triggered by greenhouse gas forcing. The MOC transfers large quantities of heat to the North Atlantic and Europe, so an abrupt change in the MOC could have important implications for the climate of this region (Meehl et al., 2007). However, according to Meehl et al. (2007), the probability of an abrupt change in (or shutdown of) the MOC is low: “It is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo a large abrupt transition during the 21st century. Longer-term changes in the MOC cannot be assessed with confidence.” The slowdown in the MOC projected by most models is gradual, so the resulting decrease in heat transport to the North Atlantic and Europe would not be large enough to reverse the warming that results from the increase in greenhouse gases.

The rapid disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS), which would raise sea levels 7 meters, is another commonly discussed abrupt change. Although models suggest the complete melting of the GIS would only require sustained warming in the range 1.9°C to 4.6°C (relative to the pre-industrial temperatures), it is expected to be a slow process that would take many hundreds of years to complete (Meehl et al., 2007).

A collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), which would raise seas 5-6 meters, has been discussed as a low-probability, high-impact response to global warming (NRC, 2002; Meehl et al., 2007). The weakening or collapse of ice shelves, caused by melting on the surface or by melting at the bottom by a warmer ocean, might contribute to a potential destabilization of the WAIS. If ice discharge accelerates, it is possible that sea level could rise faster than projected in the IPCC scenarios. However, there is presently no consensus on the long-term future of the WAIS or its contribution to sea level rise (Meehl et al., 2007).

For more information on this issue, visit NOAA's Abrupt Climate Change Web site and see the National Resource Council report "Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises."

In addition, visit the CCSP Web site for more information about ongoing multi-agency research on abrupt climate change. An analysis on this topic is underway and will be completed by 2008.


 
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